Country: World Source: AGRA Please refer to the attached file. Global Market Updates In June 2026, global food commodity prices showed mixed trends, with the FAO Food Price Index averaging 130.3 points, down 0.3% from May but 1.7% higher than a year earlier, as declines in cereals, dairy, and sugar prices, driven by strong supplies and improved production prospects, offset gains in vegetable oils and meat. Vegetable oil prices increased due to tighter palm oil supplies and strong biofuel demand, while meat prices reached a record high, supported by higher poultry and bovine meat prices. Similarly, the International Grain Council’s Grains and Oilseeds Index fell 1.4% month-on-month to 224.2 but remained 5.8% above its year-earlier level, reflecting short-term market weakness amid generally stronger annual prices. Rice prices rose the most, both monthly and annually, while barley recorded the largest monthly decline. Wheat and maize prices also eased during the month but stayed above year-ago levels, and soybeans posted the strongest annual increase among oilseeds despite a slight monthly dip. Global fertilizer markets are showing signs of easing after a period of sharp increases, supported by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for just short period: lower freight costs and increased urea exports from Iran and China have driven urea prices down despite remaining above year-ago levels. Since the agreement, around 640,000 metric tons of sulphur and 427,000 metric tons of urea have moved through the waterway, a significant increase compared with volumes shipped during the conflict. The resumption of trade has eased concerns over a potential global food price crisis that could have resulted from fertilizer shortages and reduced crop yields. However, analysts caution that recovery remains slow, with fertilizer markets expected to remain tight in the near term despite the gradual improvement in maritime flows. Consequently, significant uncertainty persists due to geopolitical risks evidenced by the collapse of the ceasefire after few days, policy shifts, production costs, and climate-related disruptions. At the end of June, phosphate fertilizer prices remained high, with DAP declining slightly to US$910/MT and MAP edging up to US$954/MT, both posting strong year-on-year gains of over 12%, while potash remained stable at US$494/MT; in contrast, urea fell sharply by 12.5% month-on-month to US$720/MT after peaking in April, though it remained nearly 10% higher than a year earlier. Across Africa, fertilizer affordability remains a major concern, particularly in East and Southern Africa, where countries such as Uganda, Rwanda, Malawi, and Mozambique have recorded steep increases in DAP, NPK, and urea prices, reflecting tight market conditions. In contrast, fertilizer markets in West Africa have been relatively stable, with modest price movements in Nigeria and unchanged prices in Ghana. Overall, the continued price volatility highlights the importance of expanding regional fertilizer production, strengthening intra-African trade, and improving market coordination to enhance resilience and reduce import dependence. A strong El Niño is expected to persist through late 2026 and early 2027, posing significant risks to agriculture, food security, and livelihoods across Africa. Eastern and Southern Africa are likely to experience below-average rainfall, higher temperatures, drought, and water shortages, while parts of the Horn of Africa face an increased risk of flooding and severe storms. Countries most vulnerable include Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, and Cameroon. The resulting impacts could include reduced crop yields, livestock losses, food price inflation, water stress, pest and disease outbreaks, and increased humanitarian needs, particularly among smallholder farmers and vulnerable communities. As climate shocks intensify, millions of people could face heightened food insecurity, displacement, and livelihood disruptions, underscoring the need for early preparedness and resilience-building measures. Food Commodity Prices Updates Eastern Africa staple food markets generally eased in June 2026 as harvest arrivals improved food availability across the region. Maize prices fell sharply in Ethiopia (-32.9% month-on-month), Tanzania (-13.3%), Uganda (-4.3%), Kenya (-1.0%), and Rwanda (-1.6%), while South Sudan remained under pressure with prices rising by 4.3% month-on-month and 34.9% year-on-year. Rice markets were relatively stable, with declines in Tanzania (-5.4%) and Rwanda (-2.6%) offset by modest increases elsewhere, although Rwanda’s rice prices remained 32.5% above year-earlier levels. Bean prices declined in Kenya (-3.1% to -3.4%) and Rwanda (-3.1%), remained unchanged in Tanzania, but surged by 16.8% in Uganda despite staying 4.2% below last year’s levels. Wheat prices dropped significantly in Ethiopia (-17.3%) following improved Belg harvest supplies, while Kenya remained stable (-0.1%), underscoring broad regional market easing except in South Sudan, where inflationary and supply constraints persisted. Southern Africa’s staple food markets showed mixed trends in June 2026, reflecting uneven supply conditions across the region. Maize prices declined significantly in Malawi (-7.9% month-on-month) and Zambia (-12.5%) due to improved harvests and increased market supplies, while Mozambique recorded a sharp increase (+44.2%), indicating tightening availability and localized market disruptions. Rice prices generally eased, led by Mozambique (-15.7%), with smaller declines in Malawi (-4.8%) and Zambia (-1.8%). Bean prices were mixed, rising in Mozambique (+9.4%) and Malawi (+6.0%) but declining in Zambia (-3.9%), suggesting varying supply dynamics. Overall, annual price trends remained downward, particularly for maize in Zambia (-53.4% year-on-year), supported by above-average regional cereal production, including a record maize harvest in Zambia and strong output in South Africa, although potential El Niño-related risks to the 2026/27 season, warrants close monitoring. West Africa’s staple food markets were generally stable in June 2026, supported by improved food availability and adequate market supplies. Maize prices declined across most countries, with Ghana recording the sharpest annual drop (-57% year-on-year), while Nigeria was the only major market to register a notable monthly increase (+8.3%) due to tightening supplies, high transport costs, and insecurity. Rice prices remained broadly stable, with modest increases in Ghana and Nigeria and declines in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Togo (-7%). Millet and sorghum prices were generally lower than a year earlier, although localized increases in Niger and Nigeria pointed to emerging supply pressures. Overall, staple food prices remained well below 2025 levels, while favorable growing conditions supported cereal development despite delayed rainfall and persistent insecurity in parts