Please refer to the attached files.
Executive Summary
Analysis of the July–September (Kharif) 2026 seasonal rainfall forecast, vegetation conditions, and agricultural stress indicators suggest a high probability of widespread drought across Yemen’s rainfed agricultural areas.
The forecasted rainfall anomalies are broadly consistent with climatic patterns typically associated with El Niño episodes. While direct attribution cannot be made at this stage, the expected below-average rainfall may be influenced by evolving large-scale climate conditions linked to El Niño, alongside other regional and local climatic drivers.
Key Projections:
- Large parts of Yemen are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during JAS (July-August-September) 2026, with deficits exceeding 40% below the Long-Term Average (LTA) in many agricultural areas.
- Widespread vegetation stress is anticipated, with the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) projected to decline to severe and extreme drought levels in several key agricultural governorates.
- An estimated 53% of the population in Yemen are projected to face IPC Phase 3+ (Crisis or worse) acute food insecurity situation during 2026.
This anticipated climatic shock coincides with a deteriorating food security situation driven by contracted humanitarian assistance, regional conflict, and economic instability. Together, these factors are expected to intensify pressure on agricultural livelihoods and household food security, underscoring the urgent need for timely preparedness and anticipatory action.