Researchers from EMPHNET have introduced a new framework that redefines how modern conflicts are understood within global health.
Published as a perspective article in the Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health, “Modern Conflicts as Global Health System Shocks: A Multi-Level Framework” proposes the Global Health System Shock Framework, a new approach that examines how armed conflicts generate cascading health impacts that extend far beyond conflict zones.
The framework argues that modern conflicts should no longer be viewed solely through humanitarian or security lenses. Instead, conflicts occurring in strategically important regions can trigger interconnected disruptions affecting health systems, energy markets, food security, transportation routes, and medical supply chains globally.
The framework conceptualizes conflict impacts across three interconnected levels:
- Local impacts: mortality, injuries, disruption of healthcare services, and damage to health infrastructure
- Regional spillover effects: displacement, disease risks, and additional pressure on neighboring health systems
- Global systemic disruptions: impacts transmitted through energy markets, food systems, and medical supply chains
The article highlights how disruptions in critical trade corridors, energy routes, and supply networks can contribute to shortages of medicines and vaccines, food insecurity, increased operational costs for healthcare systems, and broader pressures on population health.
The framework also introduces the concept of interacting shockwaves, emphasizing that conflict impacts do not occur sequentially but instead propagate simultaneously across sectors and countries, reinforcing one another.
Commenting on the publication, the authors emphasize that strengthening health resilience requires moving beyond health-sector preparedness alone toward integrated approaches involving health, energy, transport, agriculture, logistics, and governance systems.
This perspective contributes to ongoing discussions on health security, preparedness, and resilient systems and calls for conflict preparedness to be recognized as a broader global health priority.
The article is published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health and is currently available as an article in press, you can access it here.