Highlights
- El Niño conditions are now present and are likely to continue through March 2027.
- The El Niño event will continue to strengthen over the coming months, likely reaching its peak intensity as a very strong (>2.0°C) event in November-January.
- Stronger El Niño events lead to more predictable, though usually not more severe, crop yield outcomes.
- At the global scale, past El Niño events tend to decrease rice yields the most, with yields being about 1.0 to 1.5% below trend, while soybean yields tend to increase the most, with yields being about 1.5 to 2.0% above trend.
- Regionally, Central Asia, bimodal East Africa, southern South America, and the US are likely to see the most positive crop yield impacts, while Southern Africa, Central America, India, and Australia are likely to see the most negative crop yield impacts.
Current Situation
El Niño conditions are now present and are likely to continue into 2027. Since April 2026, sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific have risen rapidly. The latest weekly Relative Niño-3.4 index value was +0.9°C as of June 15th, according to the NOAA CPC. The June NOAA CPC forecast indicates that El Niño will continue to strengthen over the coming months, and there is a 63% chance of a very strong event (Index ≥ 2.0°C) at its peak from November 2026 to January 2027 (Figure 1).
El Niño Climatic Impacts
El Niño events shift the odds toward wetter conditions in some regions and drier conditions in others, with the affected regions and seasons shown in Figure 2. El Niño events tend to enhance rainfall in Central Asia, southern North America, south-eastern South America, southern Europe, eastern and southern East Africa, and southern and eastern China. Drier-than-average conditions tend to occur in Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, parts of western and northern East Africa, the Sahel region, Southern Africa, India, northern China, the Maritime Continent, and Australia. The stronger the El Niño event, the more likely the changes in precipitation patterns will resemble historical impacts.