Please refer to the attached file.
The report examines how recent developments in the Islamic Republic of Iran have influenced Afghan mobility along the Afghanistan–Islamic Republic of Iran corridor. Drawing on DTM Flow Monitoring data, Afghanistan Border Consortium reports, Afghanistan Climate Vulnerability Assessment (ACVA) findings, the Returnee Resilience Overview, qualitative interviews, and complementary sources, the report explores changes in mobility patterns, return movements, livelihood conditions, and reintegration challenges.
Rather than focusing solely on border movements, the report examines the broader implications for Afghanistan, including household livelihoods, remittance dependency, absorptive capacity, and the sustainability of return and reintegration.
Key findings include:
- Recorded cross-border movements declined by 8 per cent during the crisis period. While overall mobility decreased, return movements from the Islamic Republic of Iran remained substantial and fluctuated throughout the period, indicating that reduced movement did not necessarily correspond to reduced return pressures.
- Work remained the main reason linking surveyed Afghans to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Employment-related mobility continued to underpin movements along the corridor in both directions, highlighting the continued importance of labour mobility for household livelihoods..
- Livelihood indicators weakened during the crisis period. Surveyed respondents reported lower incomes, reduced remittance-sending and limited savings compared to the pre-crisis period.
- Reduced earnings and remittance-sending may have implications beyond returnees themselves. Findings suggest that changes affecting Afghan workers in the Islamic Republic of Iran can also affect households in Afghanistan that rely on cross-border income and remittances.
- Reintegration outcomes are likely to depend on both household-level vulnerabilities and conditions in the area of return. Existing livelihood constraints and the concentration of returnees and other mobile populations in key provinces may influence the capacity of communities to absorb additional return movements.
The findings reinforce that the Iran route remains central to Afghan mobility and household livelihood strategies. They also highlight how changes affecting Afghan workers and communities in the Islamic Republic of Iran can have wider implications for livelihoods, resilience, and reintegration inside Afghanistan.
Looking ahead, the next phase is likely to be shaped by the interaction between return pressure, constrained regular mobility and continued household dependence on cross-border livelihoods, despite increased constraints and insecurity.