Please refer to the attached file.
Executive summary
Afghanistan is facing multiple overlapping shocks. Large-scale returns are straining labour markets, border closures with Pakistan have disrupted trade routes, and the Middle East crisis has pushed up fuel, food and fertilizer prices for an already vulnerable population. Although traders have effectively managed to change supply routes, with 60 percent of trade volume now passing through Iran, costs are increasing. Between October 2025 and April 2026, the cost of the food basket rose by 10 percent while the proportion of households with acceptable food consumption fell from 28 percent to 20 percent. Livelihoods are worsening rapidly, with 72 percent of households reporting income declines and 57 percent relying on crisis-level coping strategies.
The combination of trade disruptions, livelihood constraints and limited humanitarian funding is culminating in a nutrition crisis: Afghanistan is already seeing the highest surge in acute malnutrition ever recorded. An estimated 3.7 million children are expected to suffer from wasting in 2026. Under a worst-case scenario of ongoing Pakistan border closure and an escalation in the Middle East, the number of foodinsecure people could rise by an additional 2.3 million over six months, above the current baseline of 13.8 million.