Please refer to the attached file.
Danish Refugee Council is pleased to share the latest Quarterly Protection Monitoring (ProMo) Snapshot from DRC’s Regional Syria Crisis Protection Monitoring analytical framework. Safe to Stay, Safe to Return? examines protection risks both inside Syria and across the neighbouring host countries, while also examining contextual factors and the push and pull dynamics influencing return movements.
One year after the fall of Assad, the return of Syrians from neighboring hosting countries has been shaped by dynamics in both those countries and inside Syria. The data reveals protection risks both inside Syria and across neighbouring host countries, while also examining contextual factors and the push and pull dynamics influencing return movements, while also including elements evaluating the conduciveness of conditions for return. Findings are grounded in the lived experiences of Syrians who have been internally displaced, those who have returned from abroad since December 2024, and those who remain in neighbouring countries. The findings point to an evolving displacement and migration landscape that is not fully aligned with initial expectations after December 2024.
In host countries, funding cuts and policy changes have reduced protection space and access to services, increasing pressure on refugees to return. These outflows have accelerated alongside perceptions of improved stability in Syria – linked to political transitions, elections and the repeal of sanctions. However, continued violence and insecurity in several governorates have triggered new internal and cross-border displacement deterring potential returns and widening existing protection gaps inside Syria. Returns are also taking place amid persistent protection risks—particularly linked to Housing, Land and Property (HLP) challenges and widespread explosive ordnance contamination, among others detailed in the attachment. These ongoing threats further undermine the safety and sustainability of returns.
The Regional Syria Crisis Protection Monitoring (ProMo) analytical framework draws from the Global Protection Cluster’s Protection Analytical Framework and the Protection Risks Categorization explanatory note. Elements of the framework incorporate Durable Solutions Platform indicators to evaluate the conduciveness of conditions for return. This first analysis (Q4, 2025) is grounded in primary data collected by Danish Refugee Council (DRC) country operations— in Jordan (60 household surveys), Lebanon (541 household surveys, 55 key informant interviews & 23 focus groups), Syria (125 key informant interviews, 31 focus groups), and Türkiye (299 household surveys)—as well as Mixed Migration Centre ( MMC) inside Syria survey data (n=2,229). This primary evidence is complemented by secondary data from UNHCR, IOM, and additional sources to provide a comprehensive, multi country protection picture.
TheDanish Refugee Council has been responding continuously to the Syria crisis in Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Türkiye and Iraq since the onset of mass displacement in 2012 and has maintained a consistent operational presence in all contexts. As an agency addressing the complex realities of forced displacement, we engage in emergency response through life-saving assistance and protection, as well as shock recovery and solutions to support self-reliance and durable solutions. DRC’s sectoral composition—particularly the integration of protection, economic recovery, shelter, water and infrastructure, and humanitarian mine action and peacebuilding—enables a comprehensive approach that addresses both immediate needs and longer-term resilience. By bridging these sectors, DRC delivers holistic solutions that create lasting impact for displacement-affected communities.
TheMixed Migration Centre, part of and governed by DRC, is a leading source of independent data, research and analysis on mixed migration, with a focus on human rights and protection for all people on the move. MMC has a long-standing presence in the Middle East and conducts evidence generation and policy engagement across countries including Syria, Türkiye, Iraq, Yemen and Egypt, combining large-scale surveys with qualitative research on issues such as protection risks, return and reintegration, migration governance and climate-related mobility. In Syria, MMC has been implementing its 4Mi Returns survey, a component of its global 4Mi data collection initiative, drawing on over 3,800 interviews with returnees from abroad and IDP returnees across Aleppo, Idleb and Homs to examine drivers and decision-making, return journeys and protection incidents en route, early reintegration outcomes, and future intentions. Since 2014, MMC’s 4Mi initiative has conducted over 150,000 surveys with people on the move worldwide.