Please refer to the attached file.
The humanitarian sector is scaling up Anticipatory Action (AA), enabling proactive mobilization to get ahead of predictable climate-related shocks and disease outbreaks through robust forecasting (triggers), pre-agreed activities, and pre-arranged financing. This approach has proven effective, dignified, cost-efficient, and protective of development gains.
This document presents the framework for drought anticipatory action in Kenya, in support of Kenya’s Anticipatory Action Roadmap 2024-2029. It entails coordinated packages of assistance planned to be delivered to people at risk of an extreme drought in Kenya as a result of poor October-December rainfall, across the nine arid counties of Garissa, Mandera, Isiolo, Marsabit, Baringo, Turkana, Tana River, Samburu and Wajir. The framework was developed through an extensive participatory process involving key humanitarian, development, and government partners in Kenya, and coordinated by OCHA under the overall leadership of the UN Resident Coordinator of Kenya.
Financing
The Emergency Relief Coordinator approved up to USD 5 million in pre-committed CERF financing, to be released upon trigger activation: up to USD 3 million for a severe drought (1-in-3 year) and up to USD 5 million for a very severe drought (1-in-5 year).The funding will allow humanitarian partners to deliver in-kind and cash-based assistance, as well as essential services across Food Security and Livelihoods (USD 2 or 2.6 million), Nutrition (USD 0.5 or 0.6 million), WASH (USD 0.6 million), Protection (USD 0.75 million) and Health (USD 0.45 million) sectors, depending on the disbursement tier. In addition to CERF funding, partners will contribute up to USD 3.7 million in co-financing, with the framework further complemented by the Eastern and Southern Africa Humanitarian Fund (ESA HF) to enable potential co-activation and scale-up.
The Trigger Mechanism
The financing and activities included in this framework will be triggered as per below: The financing and activities included in this framework will be triggered when seasonal forecasts indicate a 40% probability of very severe drought (SPI ≤ -0.84) or a 60% probability of severe drought (SPI ≤ -0.43) across Kenya’s arid counties, based on the median SPI for the region. During July to September, when a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast, the probability thresholds are reduced to 35% and 50%, respectively, reflecting the increased likelihood of drought impacts under these conditions.
The overall return period is 1-in-4.3 years, implying that a USD 5 million CERF allocation would be expected approximately once every 4.3 years.
The Action Plan
The framework outlines a package of pre-agreed, multi-sectoral anticipatory actions to be implemented ahead of peak drought impacts. These include cash-based transfers to stabilize food consumption; livestock support and climate-resilient agricultural inputs to protect livelihoods; and early warning dissemination to support timely decision-making. Additional interventions focus on restoring water access and quality, scaling up malnutrition screening and nutrition support, and strengthening health and protection services, including pre-positioning supplies, vaccination, and referral systems. Complementary activities in education and shelter are also included to support continuity of services and mitigate displacement-related risks; however, these will be implemented subject to partner resources and are not financed through CERF. All activities are designed to be delivered within the available lead time and follow a no-regrets approach.
Learning
The framework prioritizes continuous learning to strengthen anticipatory action. In the event of activation, partners aim to undertake collective monitoring and an inter-agency After-Action Review to evaluate trigger performance, implementation, coordination, and early outcomes. Learning processes will engage national and county actors, as well as affected communities, and findings will be used to refine triggers, targeting, and delivery approaches. This iterative approach aims to enhance effectiveness and integration of anticipatory action within Kenya’s disaster risk management systems.
Validity Period
While the framework itself is not time-bound, the CERF pre-arranged funding, following endorsement by the Emergency Relief Coordinator, will be valid for an initial two-year period (covering the 2026 and 2027 October-December seasons), with the first season serving as a pilot and lessons informing future updates in coordination with the National Technical Working Group on Anticipatory Action.