Country: World
Source: AGRA
Please refer to the attached file.
Global Market Updates
- In June 2026, global food commodity prices showed mixed trends, with the FAO Food Price Index averaging 130.3 points, down 0.3% from May but 1.7% higher than a year earlier, as declines in cereals, dairy, and sugar prices, driven by strong supplies and improved production prospects, offset gains in vegetable oils and meat. Vegetable oil prices increased due to tighter palm oil supplies and strong biofuel demand, while meat prices reached a record high, supported by higher poultry and bovine meat prices. Similarly, the International Grain Council’s Grains and Oilseeds Index fell 1.4% month-on-month to 224.2 but remained 5.8% above its year-earlier level, reflecting short-term market weakness amid generally stronger annual prices. Rice prices rose the most, both monthly and annually, while barley recorded the largest monthly decline. Wheat and maize prices also eased during the month but stayed above year-ago levels, and soybeans posted the strongest annual increase among oilseeds despite a slight monthly dip.
- Global fertilizer markets are showing signs of easing after a period of sharp increases, supported by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for just short period: lower freight costs and increased urea exports from Iran and China have driven urea prices down despite remaining above year-ago levels. Since the agreement, around 640,000 metric tons of sulphur and 427,000 metric tons of urea have moved through the waterway, a significant increase compared with volumes shipped during the conflict. The resumption of trade has eased concerns over a potential global food price crisis that could have resulted from fertilizer shortages and reduced crop yields. However, analysts caution that recovery remains slow, with fertilizer markets expected to remain tight in the near term despite the gradual improvement in maritime flows. Consequently, significant uncertainty persists due to geopolitical risks evidenced by the collapse of the ceasefire after few days, policy shifts, production costs, and climate-related disruptions. At the end of June, phosphate fertilizer prices remained high, with DAP declining slightly to US$910/MT and MAP edging up to US$954/MT, both posting strong year-on-year gains of over 12%, while potash remained stable at US$494/MT; in contrast, urea fell sharply by 12.5% month-on-month to US$720/MT after peaking in April, though it remained nearly 10% higher than a year earlier. Across Africa, fertilizer affordability remains a major concern, particularly in East and Southern Africa, where countries such as Uganda, Rwanda, Malawi, and Mozambique have recorded steep increases in DAP, NPK, and urea prices, reflecting tight market conditions. In contrast, fertilizer markets in West Africa have been relatively stable, with modest price movements in Nigeria and unchanged prices in Ghana. Overall, the continued price volatility highlights the importance of expanding regional fertilizer production, strengthening intra-African trade, and improving market coordination to enhance resilience and reduce import dependence.
- A strong El Niño is expected to persist through late 2026 and early 2027, posing significant risks to agriculture, food security, and livelihoods across Africa. Eastern and Southern Africa are likely to experience below-average rainfall, higher temperatures, drought, and water shortages, while parts of the Horn of Africa face an increased risk of flooding and severe storms. Countries most vulnerable include Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, and Cameroon. The resulting impacts could include reduced crop yields, livestock losses, food price inflation, water stress, pest and disease outbreaks, and increased humanitarian needs, particularly among smallholder farmers and vulnerable communities. As climate shocks intensify, millions of people could face heightened food insecurity, displacement, and livelihood disruptions, underscoring the need for early preparedness and resilience-building measures.
Food Commodity Prices Updates
- Eastern Africa staple food markets generally eased in June 2026 as harvest arrivals improved food availability across the region. Maize prices fell sharply in Ethiopia (-32.9% month-on-month), Tanzania (-13.3%), Uganda (-4.3%), Kenya (-1.0%), and Rwanda (-1.6%), while South Sudan remained under pressure with prices rising by 4.3% month-on-month and 34.9% year-on-year. Rice markets were relatively stable, with declines in Tanzania (-5.4%) and Rwanda (-2.6%) offset by modest increases elsewhere, although Rwanda’s rice prices remained 32.5% above year-earlier levels. Bean prices declined in Kenya (-3.1% to -3.4%) and Rwanda (-3.1%), remained unchanged in Tanzania, but surged by 16.8% in Uganda despite staying 4.2% below last year’s levels. Wheat prices dropped significantly in Ethiopia (-17.3%) following improved Belg harvest supplies, while Kenya remained stable (-0.1%), underscoring broad regional market easing except in South Sudan, where inflationary and supply constraints persisted.
- Southern Africa’s staple food markets showed mixed trends in June 2026, reflecting uneven supply conditions across the region. Maize prices declined significantly in Malawi (-7.9% month-on-month) and Zambia (-12.5%) due to improved harvests and increased market supplies, while Mozambique recorded a sharp increase (+44.2%), indicating tightening availability and localized market disruptions. Rice prices generally eased, led by Mozambique (-15.7%), with smaller declines in Malawi (-4.8%) and Zambia (-1.8%). Bean prices were mixed, rising in Mozambique (+9.4%) and Malawi (+6.0%) but declining in Zambia (-3.9%), suggesting varying supply dynamics. Overall, annual price trends remained downward, particularly for maize in Zambia (-53.4% year-on-year), supported by above-average regional cereal production, including a record maize harvest in Zambia and strong output in South Africa, although potential El Niño-related risks to the 2026/27 season, warrants close monitoring.
- West Africa’s staple food markets were generally stable in June 2026, supported by improved food availability and adequate market supplies. Maize prices declined across most countries, with Ghana recording the sharpest annual drop (-57% year-on-year), while Nigeria was the only major market to register a notable monthly increase (+8.3%) due to tightening supplies, high transport costs, and insecurity. Rice prices remained broadly stable, with modest increases in Ghana and Nigeria and declines in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Togo (-7%). Millet and sorghum prices were generally lower than a year earlier, although localized increases in Niger and Nigeria pointed to emerging supply pressures. Overall, staple food prices remained well below 2025 levels, while favorable growing conditions supported cereal development despite delayed rainfall and persistent insecurity in parts of the Sahel and northeastern Nigeria.
Food Security Updates
- East Africa food security conditions in June 2026 reflected a mix of seasonal improvements and persistent humanitarian concerns. Favourable rainfall and the onset of harvests in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda improved crop production prospects, labour opportunities, and food availability, helping to stabilize or improve food security outcomes in some agricultural areas. However, acute food insecurity remained widespread in conflict-affected, pastoral, and displacement-prone areas, driven by insecurity, high food prices, weak purchasing power, climate shocks, and limited livelihood recovery. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persisted across parts of Ethiopia’s north and pastoral south, Kenya’s pastoral counties and refugee settlements, and among vulnerable populations in Uganda, particularly refugees and households in Karamoja. Tanzania experienced seasonal food insecurity linked to poor production and economic constraints, although harvests were expected to improve conditions significantly. South Sudan remained the region’s most severe hotspot, with widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, localized Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), extremely high levels of acute malnutrition, and a credible risk of Famine in some conflict-affected areas. Overall, conflict, displacement, climatic shocks, high food and fuel prices, and constrained incomes continued to drive substantial humanitarian needs across the region, despite expected seasonal improvements in food availability in several countries.
- Southern Africa’s food security situation showed overall improvement during the 2026 harvest period, driven by better agricultural production and increased household food stocks in countries such as Malawi, Zambia, and parts of Zimbabwe and Mozambique. In Malawi and Zambia, improved harvests and enhanced food access reduced the severity of food insecurity compared with previous drought-affected years, although localized pockets of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persisted due to poverty, climatic shocks, flooding, pest infestations, and macroeconomic pressures. In Zimbabwe, favourable harvests improved food availability and supported Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in surplus-producing areas, but food security is expected to deteriorate in deficit-producing regions as household stocks decline and market dependence increases, with many areas projected to move into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from October 2026. Mozambique presents the most mixed outlook, with conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado and northern Nampula continuing to face Crisis-level food insecurity due to insecurity, displacement, and disrupted livelihoods, while southern and central regions have benefited from improved production and seasonal income. Across the region, high food prices, weak purchasing power, recurrent climatic shocks, and constrained livelihood opportunities remain key drivers of vulnerability, while the ongoing El Niño event poses a significant risk to the 2026/27 agricultural season through delayed rainfall, reduced labour opportunities, and the potential for below-average production, threatening to reverse recent food security gains.
- West Africa food security conditions are expected to remain under significant pressure through late 2026 and early 2027, driven by a combination of conflict, displacement, high food prices, weak household incomes, and localized climate shocks. Northern and eastern Burkina Faso, northern Mali, conflict-affected areas of Niger, northern Nigeria, and parts of northern Togo are expected to experience the most severe outcomes, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and localized Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions persisting due to insecurity that continues to restrict access to farmland, disrupt markets and livelihoods, and displace populations. Although the arrival of harvests from October onward is expected to improve food availability and ease conditions in some areas, agricultural production remains constrained by insecurity, below-average rainfall prospects, flooding, limited access to inputs, and rising production costs. Across the region, declining household food stocks, increased dependence on markets, inflationary pressures, and reduced purchasing power are expected to sustain elevated food assistance needs, particularly during the lean season, with millions of vulnerable households, including internally displaced persons and poor rural communities, requiring continued humanitarian support to meet their basic food needs.
Food Trade Updates
- Ethiopia and Kenya have introduced a formal cross-border trade framework that allows licensed residents living near official border crossings to legally trade approved goods worth up to US$1,000 per month through regulated channels. Designed to support local livelihoods, strengthen supply chains, and curb informal trade and smuggling, the scheme covers designated border zones, prioritizes women and vulnerable groups, and permits trade in selected livestock, agricultural products, and consumer goods. All transactions must pass through official customs posts, with traders required to declare goods and comply with applicable taxes and regulations, providing a structured and monitored alternative to long-standing informal cross-border commerce.
- Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria have officially launched the Abidjan–Lagos Corridor Management Authority (ALCoMA) to oversee the development and long-term management of the 1,028-kilometre Abidjan–Lagos Multimodal Corridor. Expected to be operational by 2030, the project will feature a six-lane coastal highway and a parallel high-speed railway linking five of West Africa’s largest economies, improving the movement of people, goods, and services along a key trade route. The corridor is projected to generate more than US$16 billion in annual trade and about US$1.3 billion in toll revenues, while boosting regional integration, industrialization, job creation, and intra-African trade under the AfCFTA, ultimately benefiting over 500 million people across the region.