Please refer to the attached file.
Context and Purpose
Bangladesh’s Haor Basin and Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) are repeatedly affected by flash floods and landslides, along with heavy rain fall and monsoon flood events that disrupt lives, livelihoods, production systems, infrastructure and markets, and erode the coping capacity of vulnerable households. This Household Economy Analysis (HEA) provides hazard‑specific, wealth group-disaggregated evidence to inform cause of food insecurity, survival and protection threshold, disaster impact and vulnerability, community priorities, anticipatory action, forecast‑based financing, cash programming and targeted recovery measures. The study covers 10 districts (6 Haor, 4 CHT), with a 2025 reference/baseline year, and draws on 85 KIIs, 286 FGDs, and 60 market assessments across 60 upazilas, complemented by livelihood zoning and seasonal calendars validated with government stakeholders and communities.
Livelihood Zoning, Wealth Groups, and Methods
The analysis adopts HEA’s six‑step framework livelihood zoning, wealth breakdown, livelihood strategies, problem specification, coping capacity, projected outcomes and uses KII, FGD and Market assessments tools to triangulate household food and income sources, expenditures, and market functioning in a normal year. Livelihood zones were delineated and government‑endorsed after desk review and field validation. Wealth groups Extreme Poor, Poor, Middle, Well‑Off are differentiated by land, livestock, assets, and main occupations to capture economic stratification and vulnerability.
Regional Profiles in the Baseline
- Haor: With an exceptional geographical characteristic, agriculture‑dominant economy (avg 58.1% of primary livelihoods), with day labour at 24.7% and thin formal employment. Netrokona shows the highest agricultural dependence (75.8%). Seasonal boro rice production, fishing/aquaculture, and wage labour drive annual food and cash flows. Migration for off‑farm work peaks in March–April and September–October.
- CHT: Agriculture is also dominant (avg 49.4%), followed by day labour (28.0%). Jhum/terrace farming plus small livestock and wild item collection are significant, with market access constraints from terrain and landslide risks. Chattogram (CT) is an outlier with more formal jobs and remittances due to its port economy linkages.
Baseline Income and Expenditure Patterns (Good Year)
- Cash income: Cash income shows the gradient Extreme Poor < Poor < Middle in both regions. Illustratively, in the CHT baseline: Extreme Poor (EP) BDT 147,422, Poor BDT 168,533, Middle ~BDT 295,175 (annualized equivalents); Haor shows a similar ordering (EP BDT 120,608, Poor BDT 150,259, Middle BDT 300,321). Income composition shifts from labour‑dependence (EP/Poor) toward own production, livestock, and remittances (Middle).
- Food share of expenditure: Food share of expenditure declines with wealth: EP 54–59%, Poor 38–48%, Middle 30–37%, reflecting constrained diets and lower ability to invest in livelihoods among poorer groups.
- Calorie sources: Calorie sources differ by wealth: EP rely mostly on purchased food (CHT 74%, Haor 64%), while Middle obtain most calories from own production (CHT 78.6%, Haor 80.2%). This explains sharper shock sensitivity among EP households when prices rise or access declines.
Seasonal & Hazard Calendars (Baseline Risk Windows)
Both regions exhibit tight hazard–production overlaps:
- Haor: Pre‑monsoon/monsoon flash floods coincide with the boro harvest, repeatedly causing crop loss, transport disruption, and lean‑season wage scarcity; migration spikes when local labour dries up.
- CHT: Landslides and heavy rainfall induced flash flood episodes during monsoon sever connectivity issue, disrupt agriculture, raise transport costs, and isolate remote paras from major markets and services.
Outcome Analysis (Shocks and Outcome Analysis Results)
Recent shock years provide a reality check on resilience:
- Haor: Severe floods (2022) produced up to 60% boro loss, 95% aush labour loss, and 45% casual labour loss leading to 22% income declines for Extreme Poor (EP) households, deepening seasonal food gaps. In the modeled post‑shock year, Haor EP fall below the Survival Threshold (ST), indicating inability to meet minimum food and essential non-food needs; Poor hover barely above ST, and Middle sustain deficits against the Livelihood Protection Threshold (LPT) due to higher input and recovery needs.
- CHT: Flash floods/landslides (notably 2023) affected 1.3 million people, displaced ~213,000, caused 66,000 ha farmland losses, and 50–65% reductions across jhum/aman labour and livestock incomes in affected. EP/Poor face energy gaps (e.g., EP 5.3% in CHT) and rely heavily on negative coping.
Coping and Recovery
Common coping mechanisms include reducing food/nonfood essentials (food, education, health), borrowing, asset sales (middle/better off), increased wild item collection, and greater reliance on government allowances. Recovery times range from weeks to months depending on the shock magnitude, market access, and credit.
Implication (Outcome): Without timely liquidity (cash) and critical services (agriculture and livelihood inputs, transport, market access, technical support such as capacity building), shocks push Extreme Poor /Poor below Survival Threshold and far below Livelihood and Protection Threshold, increasing the likelihood of prolonged debt cycles and a gradual weakening of household livelihoods.
Market Analysis (Functionality, Prices, Access)
Structure and Seasonality
- CHT markets (Bandarban, Rangamati, Khagrachhari, Chattogram) are moderately large, serving 800–2,000 daily customers with a trader mix of 40–50% small, 30–40% medium, 10–20% large actors indicative of competitive yet thin markets outside hubs. Markets face severe access constraints for the remote communities, particularly during monsoon periods.
- Haor markets are highly seasonal (200–600 shops), with dry‑season spikes in customers and flood‑season contraction. Supply is dependent on regional wholesale hubs (Sylhet, Moulvibazar, Dhaka), vulnerable to road or riverine disruptions.
Price Behavior and Drivers
Across districts, price dynamics are shaped by seasonal availability, transport cost variations, supply‑chain disruptions, and fluctuating source‑market prices. Weather‑related constraints (flooding, waterlogging) restrict supply, while trader syndicates, limited storage, and upstream dependence can intensify volatility. Post‑shock, wholesalers, transport costs, stock scarcity, and local trader networks dominate price‑setting, often producing sharp but temporary spikes. Cash and voucher assistance is generally feasible; however, localized inflation risks may occur under supply.
Household Market Access and Use
The poorest rely most heavily on nearby markets for daily food and small inputs hence access (roads, waterways) and affordability (wages vs. prices) are the key determinants of dietary quality and stability. Following shocks, households reduce visit frequency, down‑shift to cheaper substitutes, buy smaller quantities, or switch to local kiosks behavior that underlines how market continuity is central to protecting consumption among Extreme Poor / Poor groups.